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2022 was a dizzying year as markets and the global economy continued to find itself out of balance due to the still present aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policy response to it. If 2022 was about recognizing imbalances that had built in the economy and starting to address them, we believe 2023 will…

Midterm elections are often a balancing act for voters, historically tilting heavily against the sitting president’s party. Since 1900, the president’s party has lost House seats in midterms 87% of the time, averaging 30 seats lost (remember, all House seats are up for re-election in midterms). In the Senate, where only about one-third of seats…

The value proposition for core bonds (as defined by the bonds within the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index) is that they tend to provide liquidity, diversification, and positive total returns to portfolios. Unfortunately, none of those values is 100% certain all the time. Like all markets, fixed income investing involves risks and, at times, negative returns.…

Stocks will face a number of headwinds in the second half of the year, but the amount of turbulence will likely depend on the pace at which inflation falls. It’s tough to see the bull case through the cloud cover right now, and volatility may persist, but an improved macroeconomic environment may set the stage…

  Economic growth will likely downshift in the latter half of 2022, reflecting a slowdown in real spending as a consequence of elevated, persistent inflationary pressures. Recession risks are increasing but our base case is no recession this year as consumers, particularly the upper-income ones, can sustain spending patterns from income growth, excess savings, and…